The Fourth National National Climate Assessment report released Friday predicts that the Northwest will become drier and lose many of its subalpine trees to insects and wild fires in the coming decades.

It also will experience rising sea levels encroaching upon communities and more acidic oceans hampering the shellfish industry, the report says.

“Changes in the timing of streamflow related to changing snowmelt are already observed and will continue, reducing the supply of water for many competing demands and causing far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences,” the report says.

“In the coastal zone, the effects of sea level rise, erosion, inundation, threats to infrastructure and habitat, and increasing ocean acidity collectively pose a major threat to the region.”

Impact concerns

Increasingly acidic ocean water threatens the oyster and other shellfish industries by eating away young shells before they are fully formed.

“The combined impacts of increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks, and tree diseases are already causing widespread tree die-off and are virtually certain to cause additional forest mortality by the 2040s and long-term transformation of forest landscapes,” the report says.

“Under higher emissions scenarios, extensive conversion of subalpine forests to other forest types is projected by the 2080s.”

By the 2080s, the median annual area burned in the Northwest is expected to quadruple from that reported in the 1916-2007 period to 2 million acres if emissions increase through the mid-century and then gradually decline, the report said.

“The majority of Americans support climate action, and the majority of Americans will soon be represented by governors who are committed to combating climate change,” Gov. Jay Inslee said in a prepared statement on Friday in which he accused President Donald Trump of “kowtowing to special interests.”

“Now is the time for us to unleash American innovation and investment in clean energy technology and defeat the scourge of climate change before it’s too late.”

Report factors

The Office of the Washington State Climatologist in Seattle issued a report on Nov. 15 that predicted higher-than-normal winter temperatures throughout the North Olympic Peninsula this winter.

Predictions are based on perceived chances of occurrence, so the office predicts a weak to moderate El Niño this winter, putting chances for its development December through February at 80 percent.

The office found a 60 percent or higher chance of higher than normal temperatures on the North Olympic Peninsula from December through February and equal chances of below normal, normal or higher than normal amounts of precipitation.

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), an El Niño typically causes warmer-than-average temperatures over the western and northern United States with drier-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

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Executive Editor Leah Leach can be reached at 360-417-3530 or at lleach@peninsuladailynews.com.