PORT ANGELES — The Port Angeles school board established a full-time enrollment of 3,223 students for the 2024-2025 school year on the recommendation of Karen Casey, the district’s director of finance and operations.

Casey said Thursday the projection was based on current district enrollment and 10-year enrollment and kindergarten trends.

The board will use the anticipated enrollment to plan its 2025-2026 budget. The number represents a drop of 62 students in the district’s current full-time enrollment of 3,285 students.

“It looks shocking on paper, but it’s justified,” superintendent Marty Brewer said of the anticipated enrollment. “It will require $1.1 (million) to $1.2 million in reductions to balance the budget.”

Among the unknowns are how action at the federal level will affect school funding.

“We’re currently working through the budget reductions to balance the budget and we are waiting for the (state) legislative session to end to see how its funding decisions will impact the 2024-2025 budget,” Casey said.

Among those are the possibility of more funding for special education, an area the school district has pressed lawmakers to increase.

Forecasting a precise enrollment number is both impossible and critical. Getting it wrong can have a serious negative impact on districts.

Last year, the school board anticipated a full-time enrollment of 3,315 students, which it considered a fairly conservative estimate on which to build a budget. It nonetheless decided to err on the side of caution by revising the number down to 3,305.

The highest district full-time enrollment so far this year came in December when it hit 3,301 — still short of the board’s lowest estimate.

The results have had consequences.

“We were getting a portion every month based on that 3,305 FTE,” Casey said. “However, when it came to actual (enrollment count), which happens in January, the state says, ‘We overpaid you. We’re going to take it back.’

“So then we’re scrambling, trying to make up those funds that they’re taking back and that we can’t count on to further our work.”

The opposite happens with some districts. They budget for an enrollment that ends up being higher and they receive more money in January. However, they start the year with not enough funds to provide instruction and services for the unanticipated influx of students.

Brewer said he had confidence in the estimate developed by Casey and fiscal coordinator Greg Geyer.

“Greg and Karen did a phenomenal job of putting this together to give us real data,” Brewer said.

Although the district’s enrollment has been on a steady decline over the past 10 years, Brewer predicted that trend would end when three new schools open in 2028.

“As we start building schools, this trend will reverse,” Brewer said. “Families come back to new schools.”

To see a copy of the 2025-2026 budget planning presentation and enrollment calculations, visit tinyurl.com/4anshksw.

Duce honored

Maintenance and facilities director Nolan Duce was honored by his staff and the board for his more than 40 years with the district.

Duce is resigning from his position to become the district’s director of capital projects and will oversee construction of Franklin Elementary School, Port Angeles High School and Stevens Middle School.

“He treats everyone with respect, equips us with the tools and resources that are needed and leads by example,” said Josh Winters, who works in the maintenance department. “He’s made a difference in our lives personally and professionally.”

Brewer said Duce and his staff purchased second-hand parts on eBay because they were no longer made and reworked them so they could keep schools functioning.

“They have a tough job,” Brewer said. “But because of Nolan’s leadership, they know their most important job is not to mow the lawn or fix the lock, it’s to serve the kids. That’s why we’re here.”

Assistant superintendent Michelle Olsen, who was selected from a national pool of candidates as the district’s next superintendent, said tracking test results of students who had been through the transition to kindergarten classes at Dry Creek and Roosevelt Elementary schools demonstrated the effectiveness of the program that prepares them to be successful kindergarteners.

High school principal Jeff Lunt announced that senior Faerin Tait, who serves as a student representative on the board, has accepted an appointment to the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs, Colo.

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Reporter Paula Hunt can be reached by email at paula.hunt@peninsuladailynews.com.