IT WAS ANOTHER tough week in the news. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, (NOAA) issued its 2024-25 U.S. Winter Outlook. It was not a pretty picture.
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is going out on a limb with a prediction of a 60 percent chance of cooler, wetter weather this winter.
I know what you’re thinking. With NOAA’s thousands of employees and millions of dollars’ worth of weather satellites, weather radars and weather balloons, you could have ignored all of that stuff and just flipped a coin to come pretty close to the same prediction of a wetter, cooler winter. They excuse themselves by saying it is, “somewhat difficult to forecast months in advance.”
No kidding.
As a fishing guide and wilderness gossip columnist, predicting the weather months in advance is just another part of the job. That’s why they pay me the big money. People are constantly calling to predict the weather when they want to go fishing on a particular day that is months in the future. No problem. It’s part of a guide’s code of ethics to render those predictions with laser-sharp focus and pinpoint accuracy demanded by today’s modern anglers.
Predicting the ferocity, or lack thereof, in the coming winter months is a proud tradition that I take very seriously.
Far be it from me to use this valuable print space to spread fear, innuendo and rumor about the severity of the coming winter, but I’ll do it anyway. Fortunately, there are many tools in the long-range weather prediction arsenal that make this task possible with a high degree of accuracy.
The fact is, I don’t rely on the high-tech gizmos the government agencies use to predict the weather. Don’t want them. Don’t need them.
Not when there is a wide range of relevant data points all around us to provide a wealth of information on the severity of the coming winter, if we only care enough to open our eyes. All of which allows experts, such as myself, to utilize a broad range of big words, confusing acronyms and disparate observations to extrapolate future atmospheric phenomenon with a negligible degree of accuracy.
Here goes.
You’ve probably noticed, the spruce trees have an abnormally heavy crop of cones. The coyotes got their winter coats in August. The geese began migrating earlier than usual. The spiders are so thick, they are coming indoors. The fat on a deer’s back is extra thick. The hair on their coats is long and sleek. The fat in the salmon bellies is extraordinary. The corn husks had an extra layer. The old guide’s woodpile is large enough to be seen from space.
Put it all together and you paint a picture of good old-fashioned winter coming this way.
You can argue with me, but you cannot argue with facts. It all adds up to a 50 percent chance of this winter being colder, wetter and darker than usual.
How you get ready for it is your own business. Perhaps we can take a clue from our animal friends who habitually deal with the onset of winter with either hibernation or migration.
While each of these coping mechanisms have their appeal, those of us without the financial means to migrate can console ourselves with the knowledge we will not be increasing our carbon footprint by moving to a warmer climate for the coming winter.
Hibernation is a much more environmentally responsible method of dealing with winter. It’s cheap, easy and lessens our dependance on foreign energy sources.
Just put on some fat, grow your hair and we’ll see you in the spring!
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Pat Neal is a Hoh River fishing and rafting guide and “wilderness gossip columnist” whose column appears here every Wednesday.
He can be reached at 360-683-9867 or by email via patnealproductions@gmail.com.
