Mulling future salmon seasons is a great idea while waiting for the snow to melt — or melt and re-freeze at least — so here is Quilcene angler and tackle maker Ward Norden’s early predictions for 2022.

“As always, one of the most important factors in predicting future salmon returns is not necessarily how many young smolts go to sea, but what the ecosystem’s food chain looks like when they arrive in saltwater,” Norden said.

He’s referring to plankton productivity driven by nutrients coming to the surface from the deep ocean in mid-spring, aka deep ocean-upwelling.

“The spring and summer of 2021 saw many changes from the last two years,” Norden said. “The ocean currents that brought huge amounts of nutrients into the Strait of Juan de Fuca [and Georgia] and Puget Sound in 2019 and 2020 were not as strong during 2021.

“On the other hand, the deep ocean-upwelling from Willapa Bay south to the California border were the strongest seen in decades, fueling hyper-plankton productivity.”

Taking those factors into account, here’s what Norden believes salmon returns to the Straits and Puget Sound will likely look like in 2022:

• Chinook returns will be be up 15 percent or more, which will mean good fishing but a shorter season for sports anglers. Returns in 2023 will be down significantly.

• Coho returns will be down 10 percent from 2021, which turned out to be an outstanding sport fishing season.

• Pink runs in even-numbered years are always smaller and return a month earlier than odd-numbered year runs. This year will be no exception. The peak of this run is in mid-July.

Norden said the situation will get really interesting down on the Columbia River.

• Columbia River spring chinook returns will be way up, possibly as much as 40 percent.

• Fall chinook (tules) will be up 20 percent or more, which means great chinook fishing in midsummer in our Marine Areas 3 and 4 near Neah Bay and La Push. More increases will be coming in 2023 and 2024.

• Columbia River, southwest Washington and Oregon coastal coho returns will likely be up as much as 40 percent as well.

Taking this information into consideration, it looks like it may be better to plan ocean chinook fishing for early in the season to make sure you have some time on the water before daily limits are cut or area quotas are met.

Free day Saturday

State parks will offer a fee-free day Saturday to mark New Year’s Day.

Despite the snowy weather, there are still a number of First Day hikes planned, but Fort Worden State Park’s hike for Saturday has been canceled.

For more information, visit www.tinyurl.com/PDN-FirstDay22.

Changes afoot

Clam and oyster seasons will not begin Jan. 1 at Point Whitney Tidelands and Lagoon near Brinnon, Belfair State Park in Mason County or Point Gamble Heritage Park Tidelands in Kitsap County.

Seasons for these beaches will change in 2022, and those changes are yet to be determined as part of the permanent rule-making process.

Fish and Wildlife expects final season changes to be announced this spring.

Sports reporter Michael Carman can be contacted at 360-406-0674 or mcarman@peninsuladaily news.com.