A REPEAT OF the Blob, the large marine heatwave that wreaked havoc when it’s nutrient-poor warmer waters adversely affected all manner of marine life from 2014-16, could be on its way along with an El Niño weather pattern in 2024.
A large marine heatwave that developed offshore has reached the coast of Oregon and Washington, NOAA Fisheries warned earlier this month. It increases the potential for harmful algal blooms and other impacts on the coastal ecosystem and marine life in the coming weeks and months.
These heatwaves have been present in the far eastern north Pacific Ocean for much of 2023, but stayed well offshore.
Now the California Current Marine Heatwave Tracker, put into place after the first iteration of the Blob, is helping scientists follow a number of indictors for signs of the heatwave and its impacts.
Previous marine heatwaves onshore have led to shellfish harvesting closures in previous years.
Higher water temperatures lead to faster growth of certain algae that produce the neurotoxin, domoic acid, the main neurotoxin that shuts down razor clam digs along the coast.
NoAA said that while the current marine heatwave resembles some earlier events, it differs from what led to the Blob about a decade ago. Strong upwelling this spring has kept California coastal waters much cooler than they were leading up to the previous heatwave, and the broader north Pacific Ocean is also not as warm.
The heat has also not lasted as long, which means it has not likely penetrated as deeply in the ocean as in 2014.
That suggests that California may not be directly affected by the marine heatwave in the next few months of summer.
Added to the mix
However, researchers expect that the emerging El Niño pattern will begin to influence the West Coast by the spring of 2024.
That would add another strong source of warming which could increase impacts on the coastal ecosystem and marine life, particularly to the south, along the California Coast.
Quilcene’s Ward Norden was a fisheries biologist and has tracked ocean indicators for decades. He sees a strong El Niño headed our way.
“El Niño is now the most powerful I have seen in almost 20 years and the whole North Pacific has been affected including off our coast with amazingly warm water temperatures,” Norden said. “This is after three years in a row of colder than normal temperatures. This is the first serious El Nino that has affected us since the 1990s.
“Luckily, this condition is occurring late enough that next year’s coho runs will not be seriously affected, only the salmon that are offshore.
“Albacore fishing might be worth a look for those with seaworthy-enough boats. Hard to explain is the fact that the Antarctic ice pack has advanced farther north this year than I have ever seen and may even be the biggest in 400 years . How these two events can happen at the same time is well above my paygrade.”
Worldwide occurrence
Long-term NOAA marine heatwave forecasts have predicted movement of the offshore marine heatwave toward the Pacific Northwest coast. The highest likelihood of marine heatwave conditions is predicted for spring 2024.
Increases in Ocean temperatures aren’t limited to the Pacific.
The movement of the marine heatwave nearer to our coast comes as the world’s oceans are as warm as they have ever been since modern records began.
While the emerging El Niño pattern contributes to the warming, the oceans also absorb much of the excess heat from climate change.
The steady uptick in ocean temperatures has caused never-before-seen heat stress conditions in the Carribbean Basin, including waters off Florida and the Gulf of Mexico.
NOAA researchers are working with the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing Systems and the Olympic Region Harmful Algal Blooms partnership to detect any evidence of a harmful algal bloom in the coming weeks and months.
If you see something strange out on the water, send the partnership an email at orhab@uw.edu or call 360-374-3220.
________
Sports reporter/columnist Michael Carman can be contacted at mcarman@peninsuladailynews.com.
Developed by NOAA Fisheries Centers after the 2014-16 marine heatwave, aka the Blob, the California Current Marine Heatwave Tracker records offshore Pacific Ocean temperatures along the west coast. /NOAA Fisheries
